Can you trust your Garmin race prediction?

A race prediction is an estimate, not a promised finish time. Garmin offers different prediction methods on supported devices. Check which one you are viewing before comparing it with an event goal.

General predictions and predictions for one event

Garmin describes a general prediction based on information including fitness estimates and training history. Supported event-specific predictions can use extra details about the event and its conditions. The two may differ.

Compare it with your preparation

• Look at recent comparable sessions or race results.
• Consider the distance and conditions.
• Check that the watch has a useful training history.
• Remember that recording errors can affect the information behind an estimate.

It can be too fast or too slow

Do not assume the error always goes in one direction. Different people, events and device features can produce different results. Avoid rewriting the whole race plan around one change.

Keep your own goal

Review the prediction with your coach and your actual preparation. A sensible goal also takes account of the event, your experience and how you feel.

Sources and further reading

• Garmin: race predictions

Keep reading

• VO2 max estimates
• See progress over time

Use your own sessions to review your goal